'Neighbor' Is Big Horse in Sham
03/04/10
Dick Downey
The Downey Profile
I really hope it doesn't rain too hard at Santa Anita on Saturday.
There is no bigger Derby Trail fan than this writer, but even I am
beginning to lose interest in the West Coast route to the Derby with
these race postponements. Time to charge up the old battery.
Nextdoorneighbor is a big horse that is, in the estimation of trainer Mike Machowsky, put together very well. He looked
his best by far going two turns for the first time, and since his
four-length maiden special weight win on Jan. 24, he's been working
very well, getting in another move after Saturday's shutdown at Santa
Anita. Connections skip a condition by sending him straight into graded
company, a sign we like. Mike Smith picks up the mount from the
defecting Rafael Bejarano, so Nextdoorneighbor will be in good hands.
In our opinion, Nextdoorneighbor could be a very strong contender from
the West when this race is over.
Nextdoorneighbor went the final 1/16 mile in that maiden win in :06.22
after a stalking trip behind initial fractions of :23.62, ;48.14,
1:13.09. Nextdoorneighbor needs to be able to roll and not get caught
in traffic. His draw of post 9, after getting the 10 last week, is
something of a drawback, but he should be able to stay clear of trouble
and get good position since there is a long first run through the home
stretch.
A single second in a race can make a big difference, and perhaps the
one-week delay for the Grade III Sham can make an even bigger one for Kettle River, a son of Congaree. Kettle
River got a little sick and missed a workout between two he put in on
Feb. 9 and Feb. 21. Before last Saturday, trainer Eion Harty said this
1 1/8-mile distance after missing a work was a concern to him, and that
he'd wait for the San Felipe if he wasn't happy. But now, Kettle River
has put in another work, and this most-favored Darley in Harty's stable
should be in better shape to try on this field.
Kettle River was dismissed at 10-1 before his win on Jan. 6, when he
closed strongly behind fractions of :24.11, :47.91 and 1:12.64. We're
looking for a strong effort and much lower odds on Saturday.
On Feb. 3, The Program,
who was fourth in the Grade I CashCall Futurity in December, beat
Indian Firewater by a nose in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at the track.
Indian Firewater went on to finish second in the Turf Paradise Derby,
and he was narrowly beaten by Thomas Baines, who wasn't early-nominated
to the Triple Crown, in a Wednesday allowance at the track.
In that Feb. 3 race, The Program finished the final 5/16 mile in
:29.32--very impressive. But on the downside, this was essentially a
two-horse race where pacesetter Indian Firewater ran the first six
furlongs in 1:15.12, so The Program should have had plenty in reserve
while trailing by a length at that point.
Kettle River overtook and defeated The Program by three parts of a
length in a Jan. 6 allowance at 1 1/6 mile. The Program was the 6-5
favorite and had a wide trip in a field of seven. He's moved from post
1 to post 2 over the course of a week, so he and Brice Blanc still
appear to need to get out there early in order to establish a good
position for his stalking running style--if not the lead.
Setsuko, from the Richard Mandella barn, breaks from the 7 and still
looks primed for a big effort. He's going turf-to-synthetic, and he
owns a very good 1 1/16-mile time on Hollywood Park's truly all-weather
track two races back. Problem is, that win came in his fifth
start--albeit one that came after four straight in-the-money finishes.
Setsuko's been on the board in all six of his starts, but the most
compelling thing about his next one still remains that Bejarano,
leading rider at Santa Anita by double-digits, has opted to stay on him
rather than ride back on Nextdoorneighbor. In Setsuko's most recent
start, Bejarano succeeded Victor Espinoza and Joel Rosario.
Outlaw Man is bound to attract interest with his $150,000 sale price
and the fact that Ken McPeek has the services of Garrett Gomez in
succession to Alex Solis.
By successful sire Forest Wildcat, Outlaw Man is a fresh face in this
group, is Triple Crown-nominated, and comes out of a 1 1/8-mile turf
maiden-breaker where he was game between horses to prevail by a nose.
The Sham will be Outlaw Man's first start on a synthetic surface after
one race on a sloppy track at Saratoga, three races on the turf, and
several works on the main track at Santa Anita.
Alphie's Bet, from the same stable that campaigned Make Music for Me
last year--the latter one will make his 2010 debut in a restricted turf
stake just prior to the Sham--is an interesting-looking entry in that
he always saves his best run for last. The Cal-bred jumps from
restricted maiden company and clearly will need his best effort ever to
win, but a board hit is not out of the question for trainer Alexis
Barbra and Solis. He switches places with Nextdoorneighbor, drawing
post 10 this time around.
Rain, rain, go away; come again some other day.
DICK'S PICKS:
1. NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR
2. KETTLE RIVER
3. THE PROGRAM
4. SETSUKO
Post
|
Horse
|
S
|
M/E
|
Wt
|
Jockey
|
Trainer
|
|
1 |
Marcello (KY)
|
C
|
L
|
116
|
J. Valdivia, Jr.
|
B. Baffert
|
|
2 |
The Program (KY)
|
C
|
L
|
118
|
M. Garcia
|
B. Baffert
|
|
3 |
Outlaw Man (VA)
|
C
|
L
|
116
|
G. Gomez
|
K. McPeek
|
|
4 |
El Mirage King (KY)
|
C
|
L
|
116 |
T. Baze
|
M. S. Han
|
|
5 |
Boulder Creek (FL)
|
C
|
L
|
116 |
V. Espinoza
|
C. Dollase
|
|
6 |
Kettle River (KY)
|
C
|
L
|
118 |
B. Blanc
|
E. Harty
|
|
7 |
Setsuko (KY)
|
C
|
L
|
116 |
R. Bejarano
|
R. Mandella
|
8
|
Wolf Tail (CA)
|
C
|
L
|
116 |
C.Sutherland
|
D. O'Neill
|
9
|
Nextdoorneighbor (FL)
|
C
|
L
|
116
|
M. Smith
|
M.Machowsky
|
10
|
Alphie's Bet (CA)
|
C
|
L
|
116
|
A. Solis
|
Alphie's Bet |
|